Publications

Pfadt, J. M., Merkle, E. C., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (preprint). Bayes factors for structural equation models with bridge sampling and blavaan.

Merkle, E. C., Petrov, N., Zhu, S. M., Karger, E., Tetlock, P. E., & Himmelstein, M. (preprint). Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests.

Merkle, E. C. (2026). Bayesian estimation of normal and probit psychometric models. Psychometrika.

Merkle, E. C. (2026). Nuances of information criteria for Bayesian psychometric models. Methodology.

Merkle, E. C., Winter, S. D., & Fitzsimmons, E. (2026). Identification and scaling of latent variables in ordinal factor analysis. Psychometrika. (DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10084)

Kırtıl, I. G., Çizel, B., & Merkle, E. C. (2026). Psychological determinants of tourist satisfaction: Insights from scuba diving tourism. Journal of Vacation Marketing. (DOI: 10.1177/13567667261425040)

Benvenuti, M. C., Merkle, E. C., & McCarthy, D. M. (2025). Physical context of alcohol use and craving: An EMA exploratory study. Addictive Behaviors, 170, 108450. (DOI: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2025.108450)

Merkle, E. C. & Flores, R. (2025). Forecaster evaluation as model comparison. Decision, 12, 43–62. (DOI: 10.1037/dec0000230)

2023–2024

Wang, T. & Merkle, E. C. (2024). Self-normalized, score-based tests of parameter heterogeneity in mixed models. In Stemmler, Wiedermann, & Huang (Eds) Dependent Data in Social Sciences Research (pp. 377–395). Springer. (DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-56318-8_15)

Fife, D. A., Brunwasser, S., & Merkle, E. C. (2023). Seeing the impossible: Visualizing latent variable models with flexplavaan. Psychological Methods, 28, 1456–1477. (DOI: 10.1037/met0000468)

Merkle, E. C., Ariyo, O., Winter, S. D., & Garnier-Villarreal, M. (2023). Opaque prior distributions in Bayesian latent variable models. Methodology, 19, 228–255. (DOI: 10.5964/meth.11167)

Wiedermann, W., Frick, U., & Merkle, E. C. (2023). Detecting heterogeneity of intervention effects in comparative judgments. Prevention Science, 24, 444–454. (DOI: 10.1007/s11121-021-01212-z)

2021–2022

Flores, R. D., Sanders, C. A., Duan, S. X., Bishop-Chrzanowski, B. M., Oyler, D. L., Shim, H., Clocksin, H. E., Miller, A. P., & Merkle, E. C. (2022). Before/after Bayes: A comparison of frequentist and Bayesian mixed-effects models in applied psychological research. British Journal of Psychology, 113, 1164–1194. (DOI: 10.1111/bjop.12585)

Wang, T., Graves, B., Rosseel, Y., & Merkle, E. C. (2022). Computation and application of generalized linear mixed model derivatives using lme4. Psychometrika, 87, 1173–1193. (DOI: 10.1007/s11336-022-09840-2)

Debelak, R., Pawel, S., Strobl, C., & Merkle, E. C. (2022). Score-based measurement invariance checks for Bayesian maximum-a-posteriori estimates in item response theory. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 75, 728–752. (DOI: 10.1111/bmsp.12275)

Graves, B. & Merkle, E. C. (2022). Identification constraints and fit indices in Bayesian latent variable models. Behavior Research Methods, 54, 795–804. (DOI: 10.3758/s13428-021-01649-8)

Merkle, E. C., Fitzsimmons, E., Uanhoro, J., & Goodrich, B. (2021). Efficient Bayesian structural equation modeling in Stan. Journal of Statistical Software, 100(6), 1–22.

Garnier-Villarreal, M., Merkle, E. C., & Magnus, B. E. (2021). Between-item multidimensional IRT: How far can the estimation methods go? Psych, 3, 404–421. (DOI: 10.3390/psych3030029)

Wang, T., Merkle, E. C., Anguera, J., & Turner B. M. (2021). Score-based tests for detecting heterogeneity in linear mixed models. Behavior Research Methods, 53, 216–231. (DOI: 10.3758/s13428-020-01375-7)

2019–2020

Merkle, E. C., Saw, G., & Davis-Stober, C. (2020). Beating the average forecast: Regularization based on forecaster attributes. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 98, 102419. (DOI: 10.1016/j.jmp.2020.102419)

Motschman, C. A., Hatz, L. E., McCarty, K. N., Merkle, E. C., Trull, T. J., & McCarthy, D. M. (2020). Event-level predictors of alcohol-impaired driving intentions. Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 81(5), 647–654. (DOI: 10.15288/jsad.2020.81.647)

Haaf, J. M., Merkle, E. C., & Rouder, J. N. (2020). Do items order? The psychology in IRT models. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 98, 102398. (DOI: 10.1016/j.jmp.2020.102398)

Scofield, J. E., Price, M. H., Flores, A., Merkle, E. C., & Johnson, J. D. (2020). Repetition attenuates the influence of recency on recognition memory: Behavioral and eletrophysiological evidence. Psychophysiology, 57, e13601. (DOI: 10.1111/psyp.13601)

Schneider, L., Chalmers, R. P., Debelak, R., & Merkle, E. C. (2020). Model selection of nested and non-nested item response models using Vuong tests. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 55(5), 664–684. (DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2019.1664280)

Miller, A. P., Merkle, E. C., Galenkamp, H., Stronks, K., Derks, E. M., & Gizer, I. R. (2019). Differential item functioning analysis of the CUDIT and relations with alcohol and tobacco use among men across five ethnic groups: The HELIUS study. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 33(8), 697–709. (DOI: 10.1037/adb0000521)

Merkle, E. C., Furr, D., & Rabe-Hesketh, S. (2019). Bayesian comparison of latent variable models: Conditional versus marginal likelihoods. Psychometrika, 84(3), 802–829. (DOI: 10.1007/s11336-019-09679-0)

2017–2018

Wang, T., & Merkle, E. C. (2018). Derivative computations and robust standard errors for linear mixed effects models in lme4. Journal of Statistical Software, 87(c01), 1–16.

Merkle, E. C., & Rosseel, Y. (2018). blavaan: Bayesian structural equation models via parameter expansion. Journal of Statistical Software, 85(4), 1–30.

Volpert-Esmond, H. I., Merkle, E. C., Levsen, M. P., Ito, T. A., & Bartholow, B. D. (2018). Using trial-level data and multilevel modeling to investigate within-task change in event-related potentials. Psychophysiology, 55, e13044. (DOI: 10.1111/psyp.13044)

Merkle, E. C., & Hartman, R. (2018). Weighted Brier score decompositions for topically heterogenous forecasting tournaments. Judgment and Decision Making, 13, 185–201. (Data and code)

Merkle, E. C., & Wang, T. (2018). Bayesian latent variable models for the analysis of experimental psychology data. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 256–270. (DOI: 10.3758/s13423-016-1016-7)

Wang, T., Strobl, C., Zeileis, A., & Merkle, E. C. (2018). Score-based tests of differential item functioning via pairwise maximum likelihood estimation. Psychometrika, 83, 132–155. (DOI: 10.1007/s11336-017-9591-8)

Wiedermann, W., Merkle, E. C., & von Eye, A. (2018). Direction of dependence in measurement error models. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 71, 117–145. (DOI: 10.1111/bmsp.12111)

Volpert-Esmond, H. I., Merkle, E. C., & Bartholow, B. D. (2017). The iterative nature of person construal: Evidence from event-related potentials. Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 12, 1097–1107. (DOI: 10.1093/scan/nsx048)

Merkle, E. C., Steyvers, M., Mellers, B., & Tetlock, P. E. (2017). A neglected dimension of good forecasting judgment: The questions we choose also matter. International Journal of Forecasting, 33, 817–832. (DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.04.002)

Turner, B. M., Wang, T., & Merkle, E. C. (2017). Factor analysis linking functions for simultaneously modeling neural and behavioral data. NeuroImage, 153, 28–48. (DOI: 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2017.03.044)

2015–2016

Merkle, E. C., You, D., & Preacher, K. J. (2016). Testing non-nested structural equation models. Psychological Methods, 21, 151-163. (DOI: 10.1037/met0000038)

Merkle, E. C., Steyvers, M., Mellers, B., & Tetlock, P. E. (2016). Item response models of probability judgments: Application to a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Decision, 3, 1–19. (DOI: 10.1037/dec0000032)

Merkle, E. (2016). Discussion of the paper "Of quantiles and expectiles: Consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings" by Ehm, Gneiting, Jordan, and Kruger. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 78, 550–551 (DOI: 10.1111/rssb.12154).

Holmes-Rovner, M., Montgomery, J. S., Rovner, D. R., Scherer, L., Whitfield, J., Kahn, V. C., Merkle, E. C., Ubel, P. A., & Fagerlin, A. (2015). Informed decision making: Assessment of the quality of physician communication about prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment. Medical Decision Making, 35, 999–1009. (DOI: 10.1177/0272989X15597226)

Mellers, B., Stone, E., Atanasov, P., Rohrbaugh, N., Metz, S. E., Ungar, L., Bishop, M., Horowitz, M., Merkle, E., & Tetlock, P. (2015). The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 21, 1–14. (DOI: 10.1037/xap0000040)

2013–2014

Steyvers, M., Wallsten, T. S., Merkle, E. C., & Turner, B. M. (2014). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with Bayesian signal detection models. Risk Analysis, 34, 435–452. (DOI: 10.1111/risa.12127)

Turner, B. M., Steyvers, M., Merkle, E. C., Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (2014). Forecast aggregation via recalibration. Machine Learning, 95, 261–289. (DOI: 10.1007/s10994-013-5401-4)

Wang, T., Merkle, E. C., & Zeileis, A. (2014). Score-based tests of measurement invariance: Use in practice. Frontiers in Psychology, 5 (438), 1–11.

Merkle, E. C., Fan, J., & Zeileis, A. (2014). Testing for measurement invariance with respect to an ordinal variable. Psychometrika, 79, 569–584. (DOI: 10.1007/s11336-013-9376-7)

Merkle, E. C., & Steyvers, M. (2013). Choosing a strictly proper scoring rule. Decision Analysis, 10, 292–304. (DOI: 10.1287/deca.2013.0280) This article was included among the journal’s most cited articles.

Merkle, E. C., & Zeileis, A. (2013). Tests of measurement invariance without subgroups: A generalization of classical methods. Psychometrika, 78, 59–82. (DOI: 10.1007/s11336-012-9302-4)

Shaffer, V. A., Probst, C. A., Merkle, E. C., Arkes, H. R., & Medow, M. A. (2013). Why do patients derogate physicians who use a computer-based diagnostic support system? Medical Decision Making, 33, 108-118. (DOI: 10.1177/0272989X12453501)

2011–2012

Shaffer, V. A., Merkle, E. C., Fagerlin, A., Griggs, J. J., Langa, K. M., & Iwashyna, T. J. (2012). Chemotherapy was not associated with cognitive decline in older adults with breast and colorectal cancer: Findings from a prospective cohort study. Medical Care, 50, 849–855. (DOI: 10.1097/MLR.0b013e31825a8bb0)

Warnaar, D. B., Merkle, E. C., Steyvers, M., Wallsten, T. S., Stone, E. R., Budescu, D. V., Yates, J. F., Sieck, W. R., Arkes, H. R., Argenta, C. F., Shin, Y., & Carter, J. N. (2012). The aggregative contingent estimation system: Selecting, rewarding, and training experts in a wisdom of crowds approach to forecasting. In Proceedings of the 2012 Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence Spring Symposium Series (AAAI Technical Report SS-12-06) (pp. 75–76).

Preacher, K. J., & Merkle, E. C. (2012). The problem of model selection uncertainty in structural equation modeling. Psychological Methods, 17, 1–14. (DOI: 10.1037/a0026804)

Merkle, E. C. (2011). A comparison of imputation methods for Bayesian factor analysis models. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 36, 257–276. (DOI: 10.3102/1076998610375833)

Merkle, E. C., & Steyvers, M. (2011). A psychological model for aggregating judgments of magnitude. In J. Salerno, S. J. Yang, D. Nau, & S.-K. Chai (eds.), Social computing and behavioral-cultural modeling 2011 (pp. 236–243). Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6589.

Smithson, M., Merkle, E. C., & Verkuilen, J. (2011). Beta regression finite mixture models of polarization and priming. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 36, 804–831. (DOI: 10.3102/1076998610396893)

Merkle, E. C., & Shaffer, V. A. (2011). Binary recursive partitioning: Background, methods, and application to psychology. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 64, 161–181. (DOI: 10.1348/000711010X503129)

Merkle, E. C., Smithson, M., & Verkuilen, J. (2011). Hierarchical models of simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 55, 57–67. (DOI: 10.1016/j.jmp.2010.08.011)

Pre-2011

Merkle, E. C. (2010). Calibrating subjective probabilities using hierarchical Bayesian models. In S.-K. Chai, J. J. Salerno, & P. L. Mabry (eds.), Social computing, behavioral modeling, and prediction (SBP) 2010 (pp. 13–22). Heidelberg: Springer.

Merkle, E. C. (2009). The disutility of the hard-easy effect in choice confidence. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 16, 204–213. (DOI: 10.3758/PBR.16.1.204)

Merkle, E. C., Sieck, W. R., & Van Zandt, T. (2008). Response error and processing biases in confidence judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21, 428–448. (DOI: 10.1002/bdm.597)

Merkle, E. C., Van Zandt, T., & Sieck, W. R. (2008). Rejoinder: Error in confidence judgments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21, 453–456. (DOI: 10.1002/bdm.605)

Brown, L. D., Shepherd, M. D., Merkle, E. C., Wituk, S. A., & Meissen, G. (2008). Understanding how participation in a consumer-run organization relates to recovery. American Journal of Community Psychology, 42, 167-178. American Journal of Community Psychology, 42, 167–178. (DOI: 10.1007/s10464-008-9184-x)

Sieck, W. R., Merkle, E. C., & Van Zandt, T. (2007). Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 103, 68–83. (DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.11.001)

Merkle, E. C., & Van Zandt, T. (2006). An application of the Poisson race model to confidence calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 135, 391–408. (DOI: 10.1037/0096-3445.135.3.391)